Betting on football is straightforward for the most part, though there are some rules, conventions and terminology that can certainly seem a little odd. Moreover, as with many things in life, for total newbies, and even people who love football but only bet occasionally, there can be a lot to take in and learn. What’s more, over the last 10 years or so, there has been a huge growth in the number of different football betting markets on offer at the best online bookies. Many of these reflect the greater role of stats in the sport, with lots of new markets available on the many different statistics that are now collated for each and every game.
Punters can bet on goals, of course, but also corners, throw-ins, shots and even assists. Some of those are broken down further, so you might, for example, bet on corners in the first half, or even first 15 minutes. When it comes to shots, you can sometimes bet on overall shots but more typically shots on target. Such bets are often (though not always) player-specific, rather than team or match totals. Rather than betting on Man City to have six or more shots on target, one might instead bet on Erling Haaland to have two or more shots on target. With the growth of Bet Builder tools, such wagers have become more and more popular, with people adding shots-on-target-based selections to wider same-game accas/builders.
Of course, many seeking the answer to the title question of this article may have no interest in betting at all, but simply be fascinated by the statistical analysis of a game. Whatever your motivation, however, in this piece we will look at shots on target and whether penalties count, as well as how penalties work with regards another modern stat, expected goals.
Does a Penalty Count as a Shot on Target?
Perhaps the first thing to note is that if we are talking about whether penalties “count” with regards shots on target betting, the answer is the same as it would be were we considering the question purely from a statistical point of view. This is chiefly because almost all bookies, and certainly the biggest brands in the UK, use the stats of Opta (officially Opta Sports) for the settlement of their stats-based markets.
What this means in practice is that if Opta say an effort is a shot on target, then it is. Whether you think it was hitting the post and all your friends agree is irrelevant, and Opta’s word is final. Their stats can be checked at the official Opta website. There are a plethora of betting sites, football stats portals, and live score apps and websites but the majority of these all base their info on Opta.
What Is a Shot on Target?
It might sound like a childishly simple question to anyone who knows even the basics of football, but what is a shot on target? Well, Opta are clear about this and define it as a goal attempt that “Is a clear attempt to score that would have gone into the net but for being saved by the goalkeeper or is stopped by a player who is the last player with the goalkeeper having no chance of preventing the goal (last line block).” This latter point about it being stopped by a player other than the keeper is what differentiates a shot on target from a blocked shot.
It should also be noted that all goals, regardless of what the player intended, are classed as shots on target. So, if a winger clearly crosses the ball but it misses everyone in the box and forces the keeper into a save, this would not be a shot on target. Even though it was, ultimately, on target, and required a save, it was not a “clear attempt to score”.
However, if the keeper is unable to scramble across to stop such an inswinging cross or corner from going in, and the winger scores, things are different. In this scenario, exactly the same delivery would count as a shot on target, because it went in.
It should also be noted that shots that hit the woodwork do not count as a shot on target unless they go in off the post or bar. A shot that hits the post, rolls sideways over the full length of the goaline, hits the other post and then rolls into play is not a shot on target. In contrast, an effort that hits the underside of the bar and then goes in, does count. This is partly because, as noted above, all goals are, essentially, shots on target, but also because in the final analysis it was on target.
Bookmakers, stats sites and Opta recognise that there are so many possible scenarios and that accounting for them all with a few simple rules is not feasible. However, most of these are covered by either Opta or the betting sites themselves, through the use of examples.
What About Penalties?
When considering shots on target, Opta do not mention penalties at all, but spot kicks very clearly fall into the definitions given above. In other words, a penalty is treated just like any other attempt on goal. In fact, things are typically clearer when it comes to penalties because complicating factors such as the possibility of deflections, the question of whether the effort was a shot or a cross/pass and so on are almost always removed from the equation.
Therefore, subject to the “rules” noted above, a penalty is indeed a shot on target, provided it “would have gone into the net but for being saved by the goalkeeper”. If the penalty taker hits the back of the net cleanly, then this is, of course, both a goal and a shot on target. If the strike was clearly going in but for a save, that too would be a shot on target.
Perhaps the only complicating factor here would be a rather unfortunate own goal for the goalkeeper. If, for example, the penalty rebounds off the post and was moving away from the goal, only to be deflected into the net by the back of the goalkeeper’s head, this would be an own goal. It would not be a shot on target, however, as the penalty itself would not have gone in.
Times When a Penalty is Not a Shot on Target
As we have seen, a penalty that sails over the bar, goes wide of the post, or hits the woodwork before bouncing away, is not a shot on target. But there are times when a penalty that goes in, or was on target before being saved, does not actually count as a shot on target either. At least not as far as most bets are concerned.
This is due to one of the most important rules to be aware of when it comes to betting on football: most markets and bets are “90 minutes only”. Unless specifically and clearly stated, most football wagers apply only to normal time, which means the regulation 90 minutes plus injury time. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not count.
This is important to know because if you back a player to have a shot on target and they draw a blank during normal time of a cup tie, your bet is a loser. Even if they earn, take and score a penalty in extra time, this will not count as a shot on target as far as your bet is concerned.
Penalties & Expected Goals (xG)?
We know that penalties do indeed count as shots on target – as long as they are on target! But what about the modern stat that all true football nerds love the most, expected goals? The algorithm to calculate xG is very complex and takes into account so many different factors when it comes to chances in open play. There are those that question quite how accurate it is but when it comes to penalties, things are much simpler.
With a spot kick there are fewer variables and, moreover, masses of past data for what are essentially identical chances (in the shape of the many penalties that have been taken over the years, and either scored or missed/been saved). This makes the job of the stats people so much easier.
When it comes to expected goals there are a few different models in use and so you might see different figures for the same game. When it comes to penalties the variance is limited, however, and almost any model for expected goals will give a penalty a value of between 0.76 and 0.79. That is very high compared to what might appear a very good chance, a so-called “big chance”, in open play but is simply a reflection of the fact that in normal time, around 75% to 80% of spot kicks hit the back of the net.
Big Chances
Big chances are not something you can usually bet on, not least because there is a degree of subjectivity involved. The term in fact describes a stat offered by many apps to give fans a feel of how a game is going, or went. Many a fan takes some strange consolation in their team losing but having more possession, more shots on target, a higher xG or more big chances!
Opta describe a big chance as one where the player “should reasonably be expected to score”, adding that these are often “a one on one scenario or from very close range” with little pressure on the person taking the shot. A penalty, by its nature, is, therefore, always a big chance, irrespective of how far over the bar your star striker blasts the ball!