As domestic football returns after the latest round of World Cup qualifiers, Arsenal still hold the advantage with a four-point lead at the top of the Premier League table. Manchester City have gained ground in recent weeks, however. And although current champions Liverpool are back in eighth place at present, they are still only eight points behind the Gunners, which is by no means an insurmountable margin.
Chelsea are in third place on 20 points, while this season’s surprise contenders, Sunderland, sit in fourth as things stand. With Tottenham, Aston Villa, and Manchester United all on 18 points along with Liverpool (and Bournemouth in ninth place), there’s all to play for as we approach the frenetic and often crucial festival period. The question is, which side will be top at Christmas?
Arsenal – Can the Gunners Hold Their Nerve?
Arsenal’s next game is at home to north London rivals Tottenham. In theory, this is a title six-pointer, as Spurs aren’t too far behind. But realistically, it would be a massive surprise if Thomas Frank’s men finish in the top three, let alone win the title.
Next up in the league is a very tricky trip across the capital to Chelsea. Mikel Arteta has had plenty of joy against the Blues in recent times, and his side has never lost at Stamford Bridge. The Spaniard will be eager to keep that record going as he attempts to maintain Arsenal’s position at the top.
The Gunners have a whopping total of eight games in December (including one in the Champions League and one in the League Cup), and Arteta will have to make full use of his summer-bolstered squad. In the EPL, the pre-Christmas fixtures come thick and fast: Brentford at home, Villa away, Wolves at home, and Everton away. The Gunners would certainly expect to win the majority of those, and, given their form to date, it’s feasible they could win them all. Much will depend on injuries and whether the pressure of the teams below them starts to take its toll.
Manchester City – Maintaining Recent Momentum Could Unsettle Leaders
Man City have relied to a disproportionate degree on Erling Haaland’s goals this season. But then, when you’ve got a player of his calibre, why not? If he stays fit, Pep Guardiola’s side is sure to mount a serious challenge to Arsenal over the coming weeks and months. Although their next match in the Premier League will be far from easy: Newcastle away.
After a home match in the Champions League, City host Leeds in a game they should win, and then they have a run of fixtures that look favourable, on paper at least: Fulham away, Sunderland at home, Palace away, and West Ham at home. There’s the small matter of a trip to Real Madrid in the Champions League to throw into the mix, but their squad is sizeable enough to give Pep plenty of options. If the Cityzens can earn 15 points or more from their six EPL games this side of Christmas, they’ll be in prime position to capitalise on any Arsenal slip-ups.
Chelsea – Chelsea to be Challenged by Festive Mileage
Sometimes fixtures fall kindly, as with City above. Sometimes, they create potential problems. Chelsea will certainly be racking up the mileage on the team bus between now and Christmas as they have six away matches in all competitions (on top of their three home games). The next game is Burnley away, followed by a visit from Barcelona in the Champions League, then the Arsenal game mentioned earlier.
In December, though, things go up a level for the Blues as they have three away games in a row (Leeds and Bournemouth in the EPL, then Atalanta in the CL). After hosting Everton on 16th December, Enzo Maresca’s men then have another two away days before Christmas (Cardiff in the League Cup and Newcastle in the Prem).
Top-flight footballers obviously travel in luxury these days, and it’s a far cry from the clapped-out team buses of the 1980s. But the disruption of playing so many away games is sure to have some effect on the players, and December looks like it could be a tough month for the side. If the Blues manage to get through with a solid number of wins on the board, they could still challenge, but we feel the schedule is likely to cost them points and perhaps their shot at the title.
The Chasing Pack – All to Play For
Although Arsenal and Man City look like the teams most likely to battle it out for the title as things stand, any side from third (Chelsea) down to 10th (Crystal Palace) could feasibly mount a realistic tilt at earning a Champions League place.
The upcoming fixtures this side of Christmas could well be key for these sides to give themselves a fighting chance. For Liverpool, the EPL fixtures up next are relatively kind: Nottingham Forest at home, West Ham away, Sunderland at home, Leeds away, Brighton at home and, probably the toughest of the lot, Spurs away. That run of games could make or break the Reds’ season.
Realistically, though, we feel the side that will be top at Christmas will be either Arsenal or City, and whichever it is will have gained the momentum in the title race, especially if it’s Pep’s men who have closed the gap on the Gunners.