As England host Wales for their opening clash of the 2026 Six Nations, there is a strong assumption that the hosts will cruise to victory. England are overwhelming favourites for a fixture they are widely expected to win by a comfortable margin.
Anything short of a win and a bonus point (earned for scoring four or more tries) would mark a disastrous start to England’s Six Nations campaign. Rather than merely getting the job done, the hosts will be hoping for a commanding scoreline that sends a clear message ahead of tougher tests to come.
Image credit: Maxwell Hamilton, flickr.
David vs Goliath Clash
England arrive at this year’s Six Nations as the second favourites behind France. If they are to win their first title since 2020, they cannot afford to drop points in fixtures like this. Confidence is high heading into the tournament, with England having won their last 11 matches in all competitions. Their most recent defeat came in last year’s Six Nations, a narrow loss to Ireland.
Momentum, squad depth, and home advantage all point strongly in England’s favour. With a settled coaching structure and a core group of experienced internationals, this opening fixture represents the ideal platform to build rhythm, confidence, and early points on the table.
Can Wales Cook Up a Surprise?
When remembering that Wales are more recent Six Nations winners than England, the scale of their decline is striking. Following their somewhat surprising triumph in 2021, Welsh rugby has endured a steep downturn. During that title-winning campaign, they climbed as high as fifth in the world rankings; today, they sit in 11th, with both Japan and Georgia close behind.
| Rank | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa |
| 2 | New Zealand |
| 3 | England |
| 4 | Ireland |
| 5 | France |
| 6 | Argentina |
| 7 | Australia |
| 8 | Fiji |
| 9 | Scotland |
| 10 | Italy |
| 11 | Wales |
| 12 | Japan |
| 13 | Georgia |
| 14 | Uruguay |
Between February 2024 and early July 2025, Wales lost 17 consecutive matches. Although this was followed by a brief improvement with two victories over Japan (either side of a loss to Argentina), their most recent outing ended in a brutal 73-0 defeat to South Africa. It was their heaviest-ever home loss and one that offers little encouragement ahead of this trip to Twickenham.
Most Recent Wales vs England Clash
Although Wales showed resilience in parts of the 2024 Six Nations, the overall gap between the sides was clear last season. England won the fixture at the Millennium Stadium 68-14, a record defeat for Wales in the competition. Easily surpassing the four tries required for a bonus point, England crossed for ten tries in total as they refused to ease off.
Wales now enter a new era under head coach Steve Tandy, and this year’s squad differs distinctly from last year’s. While this freshness may prevent a repeat of last year’s humiliation, it is still difficult to see a realistic path to anything other than defeat.
What The Bookies Say
England are such strong favourites that many bookmakers are offering odds of just 1/50 for a home win. Some prices are even shorter, as we have spotted odds as low as 1/500. By contrast, Wales are priced at 25/1 or larger for a shock victory, with a draw typically available around 80/1.
Needless to say, these are not particularly attractive betting markets. The best price on an England win provides minimal return for substantial risk. For those interested in wagering on the match, alternative markets such as try scorers, handicaps, total points, or winning margins offer far more realistic value.
Line-Ups
Barring any extremely late injuries, here are the teams that will start Saturday’s match at Twickenham.
England
England named their squad for this match on Monday, a few days before the traditional Thursday slot. There is no spot for Maro Itoje in the starting line-up, as he missed the start of England’s training camp to attend his mother’s funeral in Nigeria. The team captain will come off the bench, though, with Steve Borthwick encouraging fans to give him a huge reception. Elsewhere, Henry Arundell will be making his first international start since the 2023 World Cup after impressing for Bath.
Starting 15: Freddie Steward; Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, Tommy Freeman, Fraser Dingwall, Henry Arundell; George Ford, Alex Mitchell; Ellis Genge, Jamie George (capt), Joe Heyes, Alex Coles, Ollie Chessum, Guy Pepper, Sam Underhill, Ben Earl.
Replacements: Luke Cowan-Dickie, Bevan Rodd, Trevor Davison, Maro Itoje, Tom Curry, Henry Pollock, Ben Spencer, Marcus Smith.
Wales
The major news regarding the Wales line-up is that Louis Rees-Zammit will start at full-back for just the fourth time in his international career as Ellis Mee and Josh Adams are preferred on the wing. Elsewhere, there is a Six Nations debut for openside flanker Josh Macleod.
Starting 15: Rees-Zammit; Mee, James, B Thomas, Adams; Edwards, T Williams; Smith, Lake (capt), Griffin, D Jenkins, Beard, Mann, Macleod, Wainwright.
Replacements: Belcher, Carre, T Francis, Carter, Plumtree, Deaves, Hardy, Grady.